Outlook Archives

The expression “the best defense is a good offense” has been taught by coaches throughout the history of the sports. The point of the adage is twofold: success can be achieved by maintaining control of the ball to prevent the opposing team from scoring and secondly, maintaining possession of the ball keeps the team in control of the game.  
“The question is not what you look at, but what you see.” - Henry David Thoreau A New Year always brings resolutions to make improvements, as well as predictions about the year ahead. We receive countless economic and market forecasts from large Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan Chase. CNBC’s Jim Cramer is never shy about offering his “crystal ball” view of the coming year. These resources typically provide a few relevant points of interest among the various newsletters, presentation materials, and even (although less often) Cramer’s headache producing diatribes.
Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.” – Peter Lynch, Fidelity Magellan Fund Manager (1977-1990) If you kept abreast of the financial markets during Ronald Reagan’s presidency, then you undoubtedly have heard of, or possibly followed, Peter Lynch, the legendary investor who managed the Fidelity Magellan Fund. Mr. Lynch was emphatic about knowing the companies in which he invested and not overreacting to shorter-term moves in the market. His quote, referenced above holds as true today as it did 30-years ago.
“If you can’t sell what you want to sell, you sell what you can, including your grandmother’s necklace.” – Art Cashin, CNBC commentator on the 1,000 drop on the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Sept. 4, 2015.
July marked the five-year anniversary of the formation of Talbot Financial, LLC. In a series of questions that follow, we asked Randy to reflect on his experiences over these past five years and offer a few insights as to how he thinks about opportunities in the coming years.   Q:          What has surprised you the most about managing a family office investment management business, versus being the CEO of a large company?
“Two roads diverged in a wood, and I— I took the one less traveled by, and that has made all the difference.” - Robert Frost As investors, there are two common responses to major political, financial or social events: to follow the “tweet” crowd or to mindfully analyze versus what you own to make an informed decision. The media’s concentration on the events in Greece these past several weeks has created a social media buzz for those who listen and read, but at the same time it should serve as a reminder that it is important to keep things in perspective. The first step in making financial decisions is to take the road less traveled by investing the time to learn the facts of the situation at hand (and there is always a geopolitical hot spot!).
“When you’re going nowhere, anywhere’s a better place to be.”  - Harry Chapin, singer and song writer   We are not really in Mr. Chapin’s camp on this one, but we at Talbot Financial certainly understand the sentiment.  On December 29, 2014, the S&P 500 closed at 2090.  As we type this blog, the S&P is at 2085.  The markets seem to be going nowhere and CNBC seems to be reaching to find any kind of excitement to fill their air time.  In times past, there was term for this; it was called the doldrums, and this blog will address how dividends can be used to break those doldrums.
“You can observe a lot just by watching.” - Yogi Berra, Catcher and amateur philosopher – New York Yankees There has been a lot to observe in the first the two weeks of May:
“As to Bell's talking telegraph, it only creates interest in scientific circles... its commercial values will be limited.” - Elisha Gray, co-founder of Western Electric Manufacturing Company  
“If you can't beat 'em, join 'em” - Bugs Bunny. Bunker Hill Bunny (1949). Directed by Friz Freleng We all know how important it is to look at history as an element of accessing what might happen in the future.  But a big piece of “the art of the game” in investing is seeing something that may materially affect share value, and preserve or build equity value with that unique insight.